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Too many Bush supporters are like the lead character of Annie, always sure that "the sun will come out tomorrow" and everything will by just Warbuck-y! Unfortunately, reality doesn't support that particular fiction. The sun will certainly be out in Cibola tomorrow, but the heat isn't going to be comforting.
The Arizona Star of Tucson, Arizona reports that one of their biggest employers, First Magnus Financial Corp., gone "from boom to bust" in just three weeks, a catastrophe for more than 6000 employees - 99% of the total workforce - about to be laid off as the company considers seeking bankruptcy protection.
This is bad, but it gets worse. USA Today reports that the crisis initiated in the mortgage industry are spreading to other sectors of the housing industry. The profits of housing builders are getting slammed by reduced sales. It doesn't stop there.
Columnist Robert Kuttner writes that major retailers like Wal-Mart and Home Depot are admitting that sales are down, and presents a case that today's home mortgage crisis is the step-child of the 1980's S&L debacle - which just happened to involve a shady character whose patronym was "Bush".
Just like in the 1980's, the government is about to spend a whole lot of "Your Money" to bail out a vital domestic financial system stripped to the chassis by well-connected crooks who need a diversion to make their getaway.
Initially, investors sought safe havens in Federal securities, but, to those with some understanding of market vagaries, it should come as no surprise that Treasury bills went down in price after the Fed announced the protection of the guilty parties through a reduced bank-only interest rate.
But even the captive and tamed domestic business media isn't sure this slight-of-hand will be sufficient, with most economists contacted by CBS MarketWatch stating the opinion that Fed Chairman Bernanke and his band of Merry Money Men have much more work to do before they can return to Not-So-Sure-It-Would Forest.
Sympathetic members of the captive and tamed domestic propaganda mill loudly trumpet that Bernanke stands for Truth (as the White House sees it), Justice (for the Havemore investors), and the American Way (to scandalous wealth), but others members who should be sympathetic are asking financial disaster.
Some more directly affected by yet another scam are less-than- diplomatic about the sub-prime crisis, calling the Fed's action "a classic Ponzi scheme", and quoting Chris Johnson, chief investment officer at Johnson Research Group, declaring, "It's a Band-Aid on a gunshot wound."
Jim Cramer, the host of a cable TV investing show Mad Money and a man who made his fortune as a hedge fund manager, recently emulated reggae legend Bob Marley, using Marley's Redemption Song as a metaphor for those investors who see, as Scotland on Sunday does, that there is only one way for the markets to go - DOWN!
The Financial Times is less agitated about the immediacy of doom, but they grudgingly admit that the Fed will be judged on investor panic levels. This alone is a mighty Augean Stable for our neo-confidence Hercules to clean out, but he has much else yet to accomplish. He dare not cease his mighty labor, for the alternative is already clearly dire. A "major financial institution" might be about to fail, or- worse! - the economy may slow and risk blowing away the cover of a Bush "booming economy" like a Jamaican palm frond buffeted by Hurricane Dean. The Times of London sees Bernanke as sailing uncharted waters in such a tempest, seeking a passage to solve problems that aren't evident to most of us - or himself - yet.
But the crews of the Nino Scalia, the Exploding Pinto, and the Satanic Marina aren't so sure that this captain knows his heading. The Economist opines that a "climate of suspicion" has arisen among investment bankers, and with whispers of the dreaded 'R' word being issued in the darker holds of the leaking ship, Captain Bernanke has no choice but to stay the course, even into the eye of the storm: a deeper housing recession, weaker employment and eroded economic growth.
The anchor is often the first thing cast overboard, and the very thing that keeps foreign investors in the mortgage markets - the interest rate - will be so dispatched if Friday's bailing fails to stem the flow. This is seen as likely by some observers, for fear of the storm continues unabated, and the weather eye see more storm signs ahead. Against such concerns, it's quite difficult to say "Don't Panic!"
But this isn't The Hitchhiker's Guide To the Galaxy - it's more like Star Wars - Reality Strikes Back, according to Swiss central bank president Jean-Pierre Roth. He says, "The origins are in cheap credit. What happened is unbelievable."
He concluded, "There will be victims."
With more U.S. hedge funds likely to crumble in '07, and with confidence at low ebb, and with the analysis showing the Fat Lady isn't even warming up yet, it's no wonder that the financial balast is being shifted about to improve boyancy while the eye of the storm provides a moment of calm. The Old Salts see a change of course ahead despite sighting the high-flying Loonie off the Cliffs of Dover.
One has to sail past the treacherous shoals before one can enter the safe harbor and weather out the gale. |