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Laila Fadel, McClatchy's Baghdad bureau chief, doubts Bush administration claims that The Surge is working, an assertion based on specific statistical data gathered by McClatchy paired up against vague and ill-defined claims offered by US military officials. She also reports that US officers stationed in Baghdad believe that what progress that has been realized depends upon the various factions settling their differences and establishing a real government. Is that why Iraq is "set up for a major political change"?
Blogger Rick Moran of The American Thinker espouses the view that "Maliki has seen his government lose both credibility and along with it, power," so it isn't at all clear just what can be achieved with this announcement. ABC News later reported that little was accomplished, as the moderate Iraqi Islamic Party led by Iraq's Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi refused to be a part of this latest dog and pony show. But Maliki, surely with massive amounts of prodding from the Bush administration desperate from some cover for their future assertion of success to be issued by Gen. David Petraeus, is pressing onward with only two-thirds of a loaf.
This is causing concerns among the world's observers that more trouble is being created than is being cured. Correspondents in Baghdad writing for The Australian point out that the largest prize in the Bush Oil War pantheon - the new oil law donating a huge chunk of Iraq's oil reserves to foreign (read: US) oil companies - will likely be passed by the new Shi'a-Kurd coalition. These two groups will retain some of the remaining oil reserves, but there is no guarantee that any crumbs will remain for the Sunnis who won't play George's way.
The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, owned by conservative billionaire Richard Mellon Scaife, editorialized [links added]:
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was calling for a crisis summit because half his Cabinet has been emptied by boycotts and resignations. A crumbling of the government is occurring while the U.S. "surge" supposedly is producing positive results. It has been clear for some time now that fractious politics in Iraq could render largely irrelevant any gains on the battlefield because religious and ethnic factions act as though they do not wish to coalesce as a nation. The government is run by the Shiite majority, the Sunni minority feels put upon and many Kurds would just as soon go their own way. With astonishing understatement, an Associated Press dispatch says, "A full-scale disintegration could touch off power grabs on all sides and seriously complicate U.S.-led efforts to stabilize Iraq."
That "full-scale disintegration" may well be underway. The National Concord Front is calling upon Sunnis to pressure Maliki "to reactivate a real participation in the political process". That pressure could prove fatal to Maliki's political future.
The Al-Ahram Weekly of Egypt believes that Al-Maliki's days are numbered. The Sunnis refuse to belong to his "government", the Kurds are reported to be angry over Maliki's promises to Turkey to expel the PKK from norhtern Iraq, and the Shi'a man on the street angrily states, "I don't care whether Al-Maliki's government continues or not. No official is thinking about the Iraqis. ... They think of how to save Bush, who has a report to submit to the Congress in mid-September."
One wonders if Maliki's competition will succeed in derailing that particular train with something spectacular. I personally doubt that a visit to Saddam Hussein's hometown will favorably sway the Sunnis away from such a course. |