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salvotim Election Prediction: Dead Heat!! - Subscribe
It's halfway through the election campaign. My prediction is for a hung parliament.

It looks like there will be about a 4% swing against the Gillard Government in NSW and QLD. The Coalition looks set to gain 16 or 17 seats. However I think Abbott will fall just short of a majority. I predict Labor will gain only 1 or 2 seats, namely LaTrobe and McEwen in Victoria.

This would leave Labor and the Coalition equal on 73 seats each. There are three independents in parliament. I assume they will be re-elected and the Greens will probably win Melbourne from Labor.

We may well be in for an interesting time after the election with three former National Party members and possibly a Greens MP deciding whether Gillard or Abbott will be Prime Minister...
Mood: nonchalant

salvotim The results are in but no PM yet! Aug 26th, 2010 6:42:53 am - Subscribe
As predicted by the opinon polls, we had an extremely close election. There was a Two Party Preferred swing of 2.2% against the Labor Party. However Labor still got 5,268,483 votes (50.5%) compared to the Coalition: 5,165,111 49.5%.

According to the AEC website, Labor are almost certain to win 72 seats. The Liberals and Nationals are set to win 73. However with the new Greens member for Melbourne pledging to support Labor, it is effectively a dead heat of 73 seats each. There are four independents: Bob Katter, Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor, & Andrew Wilke. Australia is awaiting their decision on which party will form government.

Interestingly there was a big swing away from Labor in WA, the territories and especially in Queensland & New South Wales. However in Victoria, SA & Tasmania there was a swing towards Labor.
Mood: balanced