Last night I went to the Casino. (This was my first time at Wrest Point Casino). I spent a couple of hours in the tally room for the Tasmanian Election. The result was almost as close to a dead heat as possible. It looked like the result was 10 each to Labor & Liberals & 5 to the greens.
This is my first state election in Tasmania so I'm just getting used to this fascinating voting system. Tasmania's lover house has five electorates with five members in each. Thus 14 seats is a majority. Since Labor & the Liberals have both ruled out forming a coalition with the greens, the party with the most seats will form government. In the event of a tie, Premier Bartlett has said that the party with the most votes statewide should form government.
Tasmania's voting system is called the hare-Clark system. Basically it excludes lower ranking candidates & reallocates their votes until five get a quota. When a candidate gets a quota their surplus votes are also reallocated in order of the preferences. This complex system means it will be a week or two until the final outcomes are known.
The tally for 3 seats is certain. Bass, Franklin & Lyons will each have 2 Labor, 2 Liberal & 1 green members. In Braddon 2 Labor & 2 Liberals will be elected. The 5th seat will be won by either the greens or the Liberals. In Denison 2 Labor, 1 green & 1 Liberal are sure to be elected. The 5th seat will be either a green, Liberal or Independent member, Andrew Wilkie.
I tentitively predict the final tally will be Labor 10, Liberals 10, greens 4 & Wilke 1. If this occurs, the ALP or Liberals could reach an agreement to govern with the support of ex-greens candidate Andrew Wilkie!!!